Black Friday Post: More COVID What Ifs

 Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. What If? COVID-86
3. What If? COVID-91
4. What If? COVID-97
5. What If? COVID-08
6. What If? COVID-14
7. Conclusion

Introduction

In yesterday's post, I wrote a "What If?" about how my life would have been different if a pandemic had occurred back when I was my students' age -- COVID-93. In today's post, we will consider "What Ifs?" that place a pandemic during other years in my life.

Each of these "What Ifs?" defines a separate alternate universe. So if I were to choose, say, COVID-04, then the universe that this defines has nothing to do with either the real COVID-19 universe or yesterday's universe of COVID-93. And if I were then to choose, say, COVID-98, then this has nothing to do with either COVID-04 or either of the other defined universes. Each universe, including the real universe, has only one pandemic.

So which years should we explore? I was actually thinking about the upcoming high school Cross Country season and what it would have looked like if I were a student athlete during a pandemic. Yes, I was considering placing it during my freshman XC season. This would be COVID-94, so that schools close in the spring of 1995 (the year after the one named in the COVID line), my eighth grade year, and then remain shut at the start of my freshman year, thus affecting my first season of running.

But yesterday, I already wrote about COVID-93, not COVID-94. Even though there's nothing stopping us from looking at two separate universes where the pandemics are a year apart, it's awkward. Indeed, yesterday's COVID-93, which started in seventh grade, might end up having effects well into not just my eighth grade year, but ninth as well. (This corresponds to COVID-19 effects extending into the school year 2021-22, which might happen.) Since COVID-93 might affect my freshman XC year anyway, there's no need to write a separate "What If?" for COVID-94.

There's one more thing for me to consider. The upcoming XC season is scheduled to begin on December 26th, and the California State Meet is scheduled for Saturday, March 27th. But neither December 26th nor March 27th fell on a Saturday during my freshman year. The calendar is important here if the whole idea of the "What If?" is to place myself in the current runners' shoes. I want to understand what it's like to be a XC runner competing from December to March rather than the usual August to November. While it's possible to change December 26th and March 27th to, say, the last Saturdays in their respective months, it will be much easier to choose years where the calendar matches the dates of the real COVID-19 pandemic.

The last day of school before the COVID-19 closure was Friday, March 13th, 2020. And so for this post, we will consider years in which March contains a Friday the 13th. Any school I'm at on that date will close due to the pandemic in each "What If?" scenario.

I was born in December 1980. The first March Friday the 13th of my life was just three months after I was born. Of course, I don't have any memories of my life as a three-month-old, and I obviously didn't attend any school that would have closed for COVID-80. In fact, the only impact COVID-80 would have on my school life would be the fact that many of my future classmates would have been born during the 1981 pandemic.

In the world of sports, 1981 was notably the year of a baseball strike, just like 1994 -- part of the "What If?" that I did for COVID-93 yesterday. The strike only took out the middle of the season, and so there was a World Series, won by our local LA Dodgers, just like 2020.

For lack of a better option, I choose the "Calendar" label for this post. Well, I am talking about some calendars, namely years with Friday, March 13th. But this is more about reimagining events that took place in those years than about the calendars themselves (but I am using the calendar to determine when these hypothetical events would have taken place).

What If? COVID-86

The next time that March had a Friday the 13th was 1987. For me, COVID-86 would have affected my transition from kindergarten to first grade.

I do still remember a few things about my kindergarten class. Back then, it was customary for K classes to be only a half-day long, with morning and afternoon K classes. Our school had two AM and one PM class, and I was placed in one of the AM classes. My class was unusual in that it was a combination K-1 class -- and in fact, this affected the bell schedule. Our AM class started at the same time at the Grade 1-6 classes, so that we kindergartners would go home while the first graders finished a regular day. But the other AM class started 30 minutes before Grades 1-6, so that there would be enough time for a break and then the PM class to use the room the rest of the day.

I was always an above average student in math, but back then, I also read above my grade level. In fact, not only did I do math out of a first grade text instead of the K text, but the regular teacher invited me to stay after school and go home with the first graders. I did so once per week. And so this is what my day would have looked like in March 1987, when the schools close for COVID-86.

I'm not quite sure what distance learning would have looked like for kindergartners in 1987. I assume that due to the limitations of technology, families would pick up packets of work, just as in all the higher grades. Keep in mind that we ordinarily didn't receive homework in kindergarten, but there would have been no choice but for us to have homework after the schools close.

Distance learning would continue as I move into first grade. Once again, we can't be sure when schools would reopen in LA County for either COVID-19 or COVID-86, but it doesn't make sense to have it any later than our COVID-93 reopening date of the start of January.

In Southern California, there was a major earthquake on October 1st, 1987. In the original timeline, the schools closed that one day, but of course in COVID-86 the schools remain closed throughout the entire month of October. And one highlight of my elementary years was the annual Christmas concert, where each class would sing its own song to the rest of the class. In the first grade, our song was "Up on the Housetop" -- but even if the schools were to open in December, having the class standing in close proximity to each quarter and singing would be a terrible idea during COVID-86.

Our assumption for this "What If?" is that the school reopens in January 1988. At most elementary schools, hybrid consists of dividing the classes into two shifts, AM and PM (yes, just like kindergarten classes from back then). We assume that the two cohorts are determined by last name. (Once again, I could check the website for my actual elementary school to see what the two cohorts look like during COVID-19, and assume it would have been the same for COVID-86 -- but once again, schools in LA County are nowhere near reopening, and so they don't need to declare a hybrid plan at all.) And so even though I was an AM student for K, my last name Walker would make me a PM student in first grade.

By the way, one thing about kindergarten classes is that they are completely separate, not only from each other, but from the other K classes. Even the two AM classes started, ended, and had recess 30 minutes apart, and so we never met each other, much less the PM students. While kids in Grades 1-6 might have friends from other classes and see them at recess, kids in different K classes might as well be on different planets.

And so this would extend into first grade under COVID-86. If a student wasn't in my K class, and isn't in my first grade cohort, then I wouldn't see that student at all. It's not that I would "miss" my old friends from other classes, but that we would never have met.

One highlight of the first grade is the Day 100 party, but I wonder how that would have worked if school doesn't start until January. A COVID-19 school might count online days towards the Day 100 count, but not weekly packet days under COVID-86. If school started in January, then we might reach Day 100 in late May or early June. Another memorable first grade party was the "Wild Rumpus," inspired by Maurice Sendak's Where the Wild Things Are. Of course, any party that involves sharing food would be off-limits.

For COVID-19, LA county schools are invited to apply for a K-2 only waiver. But in reality, most elementary schools have not applied. Many of them figure it's too much of a hassle to apply for a waiver when online learning is already viable. I wouldn't be surprised if more schools would apply for any waiver available under COVID-86, since again, there is no online alternative. Thus our school might have reopened for us first graders much earlier.

But then again, just today some more restrictions were announced in LA County. So even in 1987, if the schools reopened earlier in the fall, they're likely to be shut down again by December. (Again, the differences in the waiver process count as technology, not politics.)

In sports, the Lakers beat the Celtics in six games. This event would have taken place in a bubble in this universe of COVID-86.

What If? COVID-91

The next time that March had a Friday the 13th was 1992. For me, COVID-91 would have affected my transition from fifth to sixth grade.

I've written a little about my fifth grade year before on the blog. My fifth grade teacher had also been my second grade teacher. By now, I was independently studying Advanced Pre-Algebra (APA). The forerunner of the Path Plan was in place, and so even though my homeroom had only fifth grade students, I did have one class with another teacher -- Geography.

The transition from fifth to sixth grade would have been tricky, since this is the year that the Path Plan was fully implemented. It makes sense to assume that if COVID-91 had happened, the principal would just drop the Path Plan and have all students stay one teacher until after the pandemic.

And so, while it's possible I could be placed in a 5-6 combo class anyway, it's more likely that I would be in a true sixth grade class. I wonder whether I'd be allowed to continue studying APA independently, as sending work to and from the middle school might be too much of a hassle during the pandemic (and in that case, I wonder whether I'd been allowed to take Algebra I as a seventh grader).

For the school Christmas show, our song for sixth grade was "What Child Is This?" -- the only religious song I sang during my elementary school career. Fifth and sixth graders also regularly go to Chorus to prepare for a separate Christmas show. Again, I assume that all music performances would be cancelled during the pandemic.

Since I'm an older student during COVID-91 as opposed to being in the kindergarten bubble, I would have missed my friends from previous years who are placed in the other hybrid cohort. One thing I enjoyed doing during lunch was trading my food with the other students -- but of course, lunch trading would be expressly forbidden during the pandemic.

In the real world outside of school, this was the year of the Rodney King riots. Thus the reaction to the verdict during COVID-91 might be similar to the George Floyd protests during COVID-19. It also means that this is the year that my classmate died on the basketball court in June. Perhaps if schools were closed, he wouldn't have been playing basketball, and maybe he would have lived a little longer.

In sports, 1992 was the year of the Barcelona Olympics. The Games would have been postponed to 1993, just as COVID-19 pushed the Tokyo Games to 2021.

What If? COVID-97

The next time that March had a Friday the 13th was 1998. For me, COVID-97 would have affected my transition from junior to senior year.

During my junior year, I was taking Chemistry, AP US History, English, AP Calculus AB, fourth-year French, and AP Economics. The pandemic would begin four months after I transferred into the magnet program, and so I was signed up for AP classes for the first time.

I'd gotten Internet access for the first time the previous summer. And so it's theoretically possible that there could be some online component to instruction. But not everyone had access yet. I suspect that the extent of online learning in 1998 would be to have some assignments posted online. But submitting assignments online, or any sort of synchronous instruction, would not be fully developed yet.

In particular, the AP exams would definitely not be given online. I wonder whether there would have been any attempt for us to gain college credit for the courses -- perhaps we would simply be given credit based on our first semester grades before the pandemic (an A is worth a 5, then 4 for a B, etc.).

During junior year, my teachers encouraged me to participate in some extracurriculars. One of these was the Math Team, where we competed against other schools. At least one of these competitions was before March and hence before COVID-97 closure. The other was FBLA -- Future Business Leaders of America, recommended by the AP Econ teacher. This also involved a regional competition. I don't remember when the conference was scheduled, but I think it was very, very close to Pi Day. So I can't quite be sure whether we'd have gotten the conference in before COVID-97 or not. The state conference was scheduled for later on, and so it definitely would have been cancelled.

But of course, the competitions that I want to focus on are Cross Country and Track. Since the 1998 calendar is chosen to match the 2020 calendar, we know that the my entire junior Track season would be wiped out.

And so it's my senior Cross Country season that would match the 2020-21 sports calendar. I'll continue to monitor how the upcoming XC season develops. Perhaps during the season, I'll revisit this "What If?" and fill in some of the details for our 1998-99 season based on the real 2020-21 season.

Here are a few things I do know about my senior season -- I never made the Varsity team, and ended up running Junior Varsity the entire year. As you might recall, Varsity was reserved for the top seven runners, with the next two as alternates. I was ranked around #12 on my team as a junior, and so I wondered whether I'd make to Varsity as a senior. But the following year, even though some fast seniors graduated, some talented freshmen filled their spots. And so I was stuck at #12 as a senior, never making it to Varsity.

I wonder whether under COVID-97, some of the runners ahead of me might have been reluctant to join the team. This doesn't necessarily mean the freshmen -- it could be a few older runners who decide to call it a career rather than deal with all the hassle of the pandemic. If enough runners drop the team, maybe, just maybe, I could have made it to #9 and been named an alternate for Varsity.

As a senior, my classes were Piano (used to satisfy the Art A-G requirements for college), AP Calc BC, AP Government, AP Physics, and two English classes, one of which was AP. (I explained my reasons for taking two English classes in previous posts.)

What If? COVID-08

The next time that March had a Friday the 13th was 2009. For COVID-08, our focus shifts from being a student during the pandemic to being a teacher.

Actually, 2009 was a strange year for my teaching career. I was working on my teaching credential and was placed at a school for student teaching -- not just any school, but the 7-12 school that I'd attended as a young middle school student (and had sent me APA assignments for independent study). Indeed, one of my math teachers was still at the school -- the Honors Algebra II/Trig teacher I had for the first two months of freshman year (before I transferred to another school). No, she wasn't my master teacher.

I was placed with another teacher, and I was scheduled to teach two sections of Algebra I and one section of Algebra Readiness -- a class for freshmen not yet ready for Algebra I. (The name "APA" was apparently no longer used at the school.) My student teaching was the second semester, and so the Algebra I classes were already in the units on solving systems of equations and polynomials. I still remember how my master teacher was worried that we were far behind, so we only covered one method of solving systems (by graphing!) and then moved on to polynomials.

Unfortunately, my student teaching semester was not a success. I clashed with my master teacher over our teaching styles, and she was very disappointed with my classroom management (the problems with which are well-documented on this blog). It became so much of a struggle that I ended up dropping student teaching in early March (yes, the toughest month of the year gets me again). If I recall correctly, it was about a week before the aforementioned Friday the 13th.

I'd like to believe that if there had been a pandemic, somehow I would have made it to the 13th. But unlike in the COVID-97 scenario of running Varsity XC as a senior, I can't see anything happening differently in February that would get me to March 13th. The only possibility is that maybe some of the biggest troublemakers in the class have parents who read about the pandemic in the news, and so they start keeping them home as March begins, even before the schools officially close. This then masks my management problems just enough to get me to the 13th.

If I could successfully make it to the 13th, then I would get a welcome message -- all teacher candidates who are in the middle of their student teaching at the time of the pandemic would simply be granted their credentials (as happened with COVID-19). This is why making it to the 13th is so important -- if I dropped out of student teaching just days before the 13th, would I be granted a credential?

As for technology, Zoom didn't exist back then, but Skype did. Still, I'm not quite sure whether Skype was prevalent enough in 2009 to have synchronous learning. I wouldn't be surprised if Skype would be used for optional distance learning during COVID-08. At least the Internet itself is widespread, and so there will be no need for lots of printed packets.

And so as the 2009-10 school year begins, I would be able to sub and look for teaching jobs. In the original timeline, I finally completed my student teaching in Fall 2009, but in (the optimistic version of) this timeline, I've already gained my credential. It's possible that with my credential complete, I could pick up a long-term sub position similar to what I have now under COVID-19. (Such a long-term position might even have been at the same school, if I'm able to leave that school back in March in good standing.)

In sports, the Lakers won a championship in 2009 with the late Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, whose younger brother Marc has just signed with the team. In the COVID-08 universe, these playoffs might be played in a bubble, perhaps even in Orlando -- the home of the Lakers' Finals opponents, the Magic.

What If? COVID-14

The next time that March had a Friday the 13th was 2015. This was, of course, the day before Pi Day of the Century -- and so it would be sad to see such an anticipated day ruined by COVID-14.

By March 2015, I had already started this blog, and so you should know a little about my career during this time. In fact, the following is what I posted the on Friday the 13th that year:

Today, I subbed in an English class so I couldn't do anything about Pi Day with them. (I did warn some of them about Friday the 13th!) But of course I always tell the students about Pi Day when I tutor them. (My geometry student already knew that it was Pi Day of the Century!)

Ah yes, I was both a sub and a tutor at the time. In the original timeline, my tutoring job ended just before Summer 2015, and so it's likely that this would have faded away under COVID-14 anyway. 

As for subbing, here's what I wrote on Tuesday the 10th -- the last time I'd sub math before COVID-14:

Meanwhile, today I subbed in a middle school math class. Most of the classes were sixth grade classes, but during the conference period, I filled in for a seventh grade math teacher. Indeed, all of the math teachers were at a meeting to preview new texts for Common Core math.

The seventh graders were studying percents. The sixth graders, meanwhile, were studying simple one-step equations.

By this point, I believe that the Internet and Skype/Zoom were prevalent enough to have synchronous distance learning during COVID-14, just as we now have for COVID-19.

And perhaps I would have been hired for a long-term sub position in that same district for Fall 2015, just as I did in the real world under COVID-19.

Conclusion

Most of these "What If?" scenarios are set up as a crisitunity -- the unexpected pandemic in that year is a crisis, and I find a way to make that crisis into an opportunity. Thus making the Varsity XC team and completing my credential earlier are included in this list.

This week I reversed my usual Twitter/Blogger pattern -- I tweeted Monday-Wednesday and then blogged on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Monday's tweet was about Fibonacci Day -- it was on November 23rd or 11/23. It's tricky for schools that take a whole week off for Thanksgiving to celebrate Fibonacci Day. The Tuesday and Wednesday tweets were in response to teachers whose respective last days before Thanksgiving were those days. One wrote about Desmos Polygraphs again, and the other uses magnetic algebra tiles during the pandemic.

Some Christmas specials aired tonight, including Frosty the Snowman -- the story that shows children attending school on Christmas Eve. Last night was the other snowman, Olaf. Tomorrow will be the annual airing of Robbie the Reindeer -- as usual, the athletic son of Rudolph who competes in the Reindeer Games will air on the day of the California State XC Meet --

-- except that the State Meet isn't happening tomorrow due to the pandemic. Still, I think I'll do my annual watching of McFarland USA tomorrow anyway. If the State Meet still happens in March, then I'll just watch it a second time. (I did the same thing with the film 42, watching it on both the annual Jackie Robinson Day in April and the rescheduled day in August when baseball was being played.)

(Hmm, McFarland won the inaugural State Meet in 1987. In the COVID-86 universe, the meet would have been at least postponed, and probably cancelled completely.)

And that's all I have to say for now. I hope you all enjoyed your Thanksgiving break. I'll resume my normal blogging schedule on Monday.